Friday, April 25, 2008

Just Some Election Stuff

I've been pretty nasty to Paul Krugman in the past, so I've got to give him credit for today's op-ed piece on the Clinton Obama race. Basically, middle class whites (particularly lower middle class whites hurt by the economic downturn) aren't all that impressed with Obama's rhetoric. I can't say I disagree.

As I've watched the Democratic primary unfold, it's seemed to me that Hillary was outperforming Obama in middle America. Obama did well with young people and blacks, while Hillary did better with women and older voters. If you look at the states Obama won, you'll see many of them tended to be the very liberal states while others tended to be states with statistically significant Democratic voting black populations.

I've made several predictions that Hillary would be the next president. I really have no clue who'll take the Democratic nomination at this point, but I'm still fairly convinced that Hillary stands a better shot at winning in the general election than Obama does, because of what I've laid out and what Paul Krugman lays out in his op-ed. If Obama wins the nomination I think more of these Hillary voters will be willing to give McCain serious consideration than would Obama voters if Hillary wins the nomination. (Although I suppose the X factor is the number of Obama voters that would stay home if Hillary wins. Still though, I'm willing to bet not many, as Hillary would be greatly preferable to another Republican administration to most of the Obama voters.)

One more X-factor in the general election- the possibility that the Libertarian party could actually be a factor. Particularly interesting is the candidacy of former Democrat Senator Mike Gravel, who, along with former Republican Congressman Bob Barr, is contending for the Libertarian nomination. In an election where even the Democrats seem basically unwilling to talk about the war, I think the libertarians could siphon off anti-war votes from both the left and the right and I think John McCain's candidacy could open the door for Republican voters who care more about limited government than the war on terror.


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